The Road to Milan-San Remo: A Tale of Strategy, Form, and Unpredictability
Cycling’s spring season is a chess match on two wheels, and this year’s build-up to Milan-San Remo has been nothing short of fascinating. Personally, I think what makes this edition so intriguing is how riders and teams are rewriting the playbook. The traditional routes to peak form are being challenged, and the results are as unpredictable as they are exciting.
Tirreno-Adriatico: The Real Dress Rehearsal?
Let’s start with Tirreno-Adriatico, often dubbed the ideal preparation ground for Milan-San Remo. What many people don’t realize is that this race isn’t just about the terrain or the weather—it’s about the rhythm. The racing here is fast but not brutal, allowing one-day specialists to fine-tune their form without burning out. In my opinion, this is why Mathieu van der Poel’s performance at Tirreno was so telling.
Van der Poel’s form is nothing short of extraordinary. The Flemish newspaper Nieuwsblad giving him an 11 out of 10 wasn’t just hyperbole—it was a statement. What this really suggests is that Van der Poel is not just in good shape; he’s in a league of his own. His victories in San Gimignano and Martinsicuro weren’t just wins; they were masterclasses in tactical racing and controlled aggression.
But here’s the thing: Van der Poel’s dominance raises a deeper question. If he’s this strong, does it make Milan-San Remo a foregone conclusion? Personally, I think not. Cycling is a sport where form is only one piece of the puzzle. Weather, team dynamics, and sheer unpredictability can turn the tables in an instant.
Pogačar’s Absence and the UAE Dilemma
Tadej Pogačar’s decision to skip Tirreno-Adriatico is a bold one. From my perspective, it’s a calculated risk. Pogačar is following a unique spring classics plan, culminating in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, but his absence from Tirreno leaves a void. Without him, the race dynamics shifted, and Van der Poel had more room to dominate.
Meanwhile, UAE Team Emirates is facing a selection dilemma for Milan-San Remo. Isaac del Toro’s overall victory at Tirreno was impressive, but his role as Pogačar’s lieutenant on Saturday is far from straightforward. Del Toro has the physical ability, but can he handle the pressure of leading out Pogačar on the Cipressa? What makes this particularly fascinating is how UAE’s lineup has been weakened by injuries and fatigue. Without Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez, Pogačar might find himself with less support than he’s used to.
The Dark Horses and Outsiders
One thing that immediately stands out this year is the emergence of dark horses. Giulio Pellizzari, for instance, could be a wildcard. His third-place finish at Tirreno, despite an Achilles tendon issue, shows his potential. As an Italian, Pellizzari knows what it means to race La Classicissima, and if the race explodes on the Cipressa, he could be a real threat.
Then there’s Matteo Jorgenson, who seems to be flying under the radar. His role in supporting Wout van Aert at Visma-Lease a Bike could be pivotal, especially on the Cipressa. If you take a step back and think about it, Jorgenson’s sustained power efforts could be the key to unlocking a Van Aert victory.
Paris-Nice: The Road Less Traveled
Paris-Nice, once a staple in the Milan-San Remo preparation, has fallen out of favor with many contenders. The weather, the terrain, and the overall intensity make it a riskier choice. But here’s where it gets interesting: riders like Biniam Girmay and Luke Lamperti are using it as a platform to build form away from the spotlight.
What many people don’t realize is that Paris-Nice can still produce surprises. Jasper Stuyven’s 2021 Milan-San Remo victory after racing Paris-Nice is a case in point. This year, with a tailwind along the coast and a risk of rain, the race could favor those who’ve taken the less-traveled path.
The Bigger Picture: Tradition vs. Innovation
Modern cycling is at a crossroads. Traditions are being challenged, and riders are experimenting with new approaches. Pogačar’s altitude training, Van der Poel’s focus on Tirreno, and the decline of races like Milano-Torino all point to a shift in how riders prepare for the Monuments.
In my opinion, this evolution is both exciting and unsettling. On one hand, it keeps the sport fresh and unpredictable. On the other, it raises questions about the loss of cycling’s rich traditions. Personally, I think the balance between innovation and heritage is what makes cycling so captivating.
Final Thoughts
As we head into Milan-San Remo, the stage is set for a race that could go in any direction. Van der Poel’s form is undeniable, but Pogačar’s tactical brilliance and the emergence of dark horses like Pellizzari and Jorgenson mean nothing is certain.
What this really suggests is that Milan-San Remo will be a battle of strategy, form, and sheer willpower. And that, in my opinion, is what makes it one of the most exciting races on the calendar. So, as we count down the days, one thing is clear: this year’s edition will be one for the history books.
